Lebanon Must Seize This Historic Moment to Restore Sovereignty: Col. Dahouk

Lebanon has managed to secure a direct US commitment to providing political support and supplying the Lebanese army with the necessary assistance and equipment to restore control over the entire country, former senior military advisor to the US Department of State, Colonel (Ret.) Abbas Dahouk, said.

The Big Picture: Lebanese President Joseph Aoun held a historic meeting with US President Donald Trump in Washington on Tuesday, as part of an official visit during which he met with senior US officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

US-Lebanon Historic Meeting

The Context: Speaking to BBC Arabic, Col. Dahouk described the Trump-Aoun meeting as “historic.” He noted that this is the first time in which the US, Lebanon and Israel convened at a roundtable and reached a framework agreement with common objectives: disarming Hezbollah, restoring Lebanon’s sovereignty, and achieving peace along the borders between Lebanon and Israel.

Between the Lines: The US, Lebanon, and Israel signed a trilateral framework agreement on June 26, aimed at disarming Hezbollah, seeing an Israeli troop withdrawal from Lebanon, and laying the groundwork for a comprehensive peace agreement between Beirut and Tel Aviv.

US Commitment to Lebanon

Why It Matters: Col. Dahouk highlighted the significance of Aoun’s visit to Washington and his meeting with Trump. “Lebanon managed to get a direct commitment from the US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, and from the US President and his advisers” to providing political support for Lebanon and supplying the Lebanese army with the necessary assistance and equipment to be capable of restoring control over the country, Col. Dahouk said.

The Catch: The former senior military advisor warned that the devil lies in the details. “We have to wait and the Lebanese army has to reaffirm its commitment to disarming Hezbollah,” he said, noting that the main question becomes “Is it possible to implement this on the ground in coordination with US CENTCOM and Israel?”

Will Syria Intervene?

What They’re Saying: Trump has repeatedly suggested that Syria, under President Ahmed Al-Sharaa, intervene in Lebanon to confront Hezbollah, despite Damascus’ rejection of any military involvement in its neighbor. “He would go in and take care of Hezbollah, and he’d do it in a different way. He wouldn’t knock down buildings. I hated to see buildings knocked down. I think it’d be more precise, yeah, I think. And I can tell you. I know he’d like to do it,” Trump told Fox News last week.

Go Deeper: According to Col. Dahouk, Trump’s remarks “turn the table.” He recalled the 1976 events, when Syria militarily intervened in Lebanon to remove the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) at the time, which was a “state within a state.” Col. Dahouk pointed out that Hezbollah now acts like a state within a state, closely coordinating with and receiving support from Iran.

State of Play: Back in the 1970s, the Syrian army had significant military power and was capable of confronting a number of Lebanese forces, including the PLO, Col. Dahouk said. However, Syria today lacks such capabilities, but it can act as border guards after demarcating borders between the two countries, to ensure the prevention of weapons smuggling into Lebanon from Iraq, and possibly Iran, for Hezbollah, he added.

According to Col. Dahouk, Syria can provide economic support through resolving the issue of Lebanese nationals detained in Syria, as well as other issues including intelligence exchange and other forms of Lebanese-Syrian cooperation.

The Lebanese Decision

What to Watch: Col. Dahouk ruled out the idea that the US wants Syrian armed groups or forces to cross the Syrian-Lebanese borders to engage with Hezbollah. He viewed this as a suggestion in case the Lebanese armed forces are incapable of disarming Hezbollah.

The Bottom Line: In Col. Dahouk’s opinion, all the necessary elements – powerful Lebanese president and government, backing from GCC countries, France and the US, and Israeli desire for a peace agreement – are in place for Lebanon to restore its sovereignty. However, he stressed that no outside powers will do the job for them; Lebanese leadership must seize the moment and act now.