The US is gearing up for electing its 47th president, in a heated election race between the Democratic candidate, Kamala Harris, and the Republican candidate, Donald Trump.
Now that we are three days from the Election Day, set on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, both candidates are racing to gain the support of diverse demographic groups, especially in the battleground states, as they are locked up in a neck and neck contest.
More than 64 million Americans have already cast their votes early, with swing states exceeding their records of early voting and women outpacing men in the early vote.
Arab American Voters
Both Trump and Harris are seeking to rally Arab American voters to their side. However, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is casting its shadows on the Arab Americans voting trends in the US election 2024.
The wars in Gaza and Lebanon, and the US staunch support for Israel, have caused a significant amount of dissatisfaction, particularly among voters with Democratic leaning.
In Michigan, a key swing state and home to a large Arab American population, voters find themselves between a rock and a hard place. They face the difficult choice of either backing Harris, whom they consider complicit in the death of more than 43,000 Palestinians in Gaza, or enduring another Trump’s term which could bring discrimination and anti-Arab racism.
The Bitter Choice
A recent poll has shown a slight lead for Trump over Harris among Arab American voters, in a worrying sign for the Democratic Party’s nominee. In the Arab News/YouGov Poll, the former president got 45% support among Arab Americans, compared to 43% for Harris, while 4% supported the Green Party’s candidate, Jill Stein.
Meanwhile, 39% of Arab Americans saw Trump as the most likely presidential candidate to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, compared to 33% for Harris. Both candidates got 38% for being the “better for the Middle East” in general. Moreover, 69% of Arab American voters considered Trump the most supportive of Israel’s current government, to 60% for Harris.
In a striking contrast, the same poll showed that 46% of Arab Americans expect an increase in racism and hate attacks against Arabs under Trump presidency, compared to only 23% for Harris.
Courting Arab Americans
Recognizing the significance of this influential community, Trump has courted Arab American voters in a visit to Dearborn, Michigan, home to over 200,000 Arab Americans. The former president’s campaign says he supports peace in the Middle East, while depicting his opponent as “pro-Israel.”
In Dearborn, Trump reassured a group of Arab American business leaders that “what we want is peace,” reported BBC. He managed to secure two endorsements from Democratic mayors who represent Muslim-majority cities outside Detroit, while Dearborn Mayor, Abdullah Hammoud, declined a meeting with Trump.
On the other hand, Harris got the endorsement of one of the Uncommitted Movement leaders, although his group’s members refused to back the Vice President. Harris campaign says she has been and is supportive of the “diverse Muslim community” in the US.
Harris has not provided a clear path on changing the US policies towards Israel or the war in Gaza if she won the US election 2024. However, she made a rare mention of the Middle East conflict during a speech in Oakland County, outside of Detroit, reported the Associated Press (AP).
“This year has been very difficult, given the scale of death and destruction in Gaza and given the civilian casualties and displacement in Lebanon,” the Vice President said, referring to the death of Hamas leader, Yahya Sinwar, as a “turning point.”
Gender Gap in US Election
Several issues, including abortion rights and women rights, have alienated more female voters away from Trump. Women have shown a huge turnout in the early vote of the US election 2024, surpassing men by nearly 10%. Some observers see this as a warning sign for Trump.
The former president’s campaign has focused on speaking to young men through appearing on male-dominated online shows, while declining invitations to TV shows targeted at female audiences, according to CNN. This has caused a widening gender gap, alarming Trump’s advisers who thought that his appeal among men voters would make up for the lack of female support.
During the final days of his campaign, Trump tried to court female voters, causing disagreements among his staff about his message. At a rally in Green Bay, Wisconsin, Trump spoke about his aides advising him to drop his promise of being “women’s protector” because they considered it inappropriate.
“Why? I’m president. I want to protect the women of our country. Well, I’m going to do it, whether the women like it or not. I’m going to protect them,” he commented.
The Harris campaign quickly seized those remarks as a sign that Trump “simply does not respect the freedom of women or the intelligence of women to make decisions about their own lives.”
A recent ABC News/Ipsos national poll showed a 14-percentage-point lead for Harris over Trump among the likely female voters, with 56% to 42%. Meanwhile, Trump led by 6 percentage points among male voters, with 51% to 45% for Harris.
Black Voters
Black voters have been an important Democratic constituency. According to a recent poll from the AP/NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, two-thirds of black voters identify as Democrats, while 1 in 10 identify as Republicans. The poll, conducted in mid-September, found that 7 in 10 black voters have favorable views of Harris, whereas their views of Trump were negative.
However, the poll showed that black voters are less certain whether Harris could improve their lives or set the country on a better trajectory. Black voters think that Harris could do a better job in handling issues such as the economy, health care and crime.
Meanwhile, the Trump campaign has been seeking to increase its outreach among black voters, specifically black men, to increase its chances of winning the US election. The campaign thinks that the former president’s message on economy, immigration and traditional values could appeal to black men.
Similarly, an analysis of Reuters/Ipsos polls conducted in October found that 68% of all back voters would vote for Harris, to only 12% for Trump. The share of black men who would vote for Harris was 63%, while black women’s share was 73%. Only 19% of Black men and 7% of Black women said they would vote for Trump.
