The world is watching as American voters head to the polls to elect their new president on November 5, 2024. The race for the White House features a fierce competition between the current Vice President, Kamala Harris, and the former President, Donald Trump.
Millions of Americans have already cast their votes in the US election 2024, by mail or through early in-person voting. Polls are showing that the Democratic and Republican candidates remain neck and neck in the race.
US Presidential Candidates
The US presidential campaigns started with 15 candidates, including nine Republicans, four Democrats and two independents, but most of them dropped out of the race.
Currently, Trump is the Republican Party’s nominee, while Harris is the nominee of the Democratic Party, after the withdrawal of President Joe Biden in July.
The presidential race includes three other candidates: Cornel West (Independent), Jill Stein (Green Party), and Chase Oliver (Libertarian Party). Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) suspended his campaign in August and endorsed Trump.
Kamala Harris
Harris, 60 years, is the daughter of immigrants from India and Jamaica. She served as a US senator, California attorney general and the San Francisco district attorney. She is the highest-ranking female political official in US history and could become the first US female president.
Her agenda focuses on continuing many of Biden’s policies and measures. She chose Minnesota governor, Tim Walz, to be her Vice President.
Donald Trump
On the other hand, Trump, 78 years, is a renowned real estate developer and businessman. He won the presidential election in 2016, and is seeking to return to the White House to be the second commander in chief to win two nonconsecutive terms.
Trump’s political career is controversial, as he has rejected the outcome of the 2020 election, when he lost to Biden. He also faces a myriad of legal troubles. The former president was also subject to two apparent assassination attempts.
His agenda centers on overhauling key sectors of the federal government and cutting social safety net programs. He has also vowed revenge against his political opponents and to prosecute Biden and his family. Trump chose the US Senator from Ohio, JD Vance, as his Vice President.
Who is leading the Polls?
The polls show a very close competition, with Harris having a slight lead over Trump. According to CNN poll of polls, conducted from October 18-25, 2024, Harris holds 48% support among likely voters to 47% to Trump.
Similarly, a Reuters/Ipsos poll, conducted from October 25-27, 2024, showed Harris leading by a very tight margin, with 44% to 43% for Trump. Reuters/Ipsos polls have shown a steady decline in the Democratic nominee’s support among registered voters since late September.
However, the polls do not give a precise guide to the election result because the US uses an Electoral College system. A number of votes is allocated to each state based on the size of its population. The total number of Electoral College votes is 538, so a candidate needs to secure 270 to win.
Also, polls have a margin of error of about three percentage points in either direction. Hence, a candidate could be doing better or worse than the numbers indicate.
Moreover, a handful of states, known as battleground states or swing states, play a crucial role in determining the winner, as they do not vote for a certain party.
Swing States
According to new CNN polls conducted by SSRS, Kamala Harris is leading over Donald Trump in Michigan, with 48% to 43%. She is also ahead of Trump in Wisconsin, gaining the support of 51% against 45% to Trump. Michigan has 15 electoral votes, while Wisconsin has 10 electoral votes.
Meanwhile, both candidates are tied up in Pennsylvania, with 48% for each. Pennsylvania is the most significant of the three states and plays a pivotal role in determining the winner as it has the largest share of electoral votes (19 electoral votes).
The three states have turned in Trump’s favor in 2016 election, but Biden retook them in 2020.
The same polls showed that both Harris and Trump are going head to head in Arizona (11 electoral votes) and Nevada (6 electoral votes). In Arizona, Harris got the support of 48% of likely voters, to 47% for Trump. Meanwhile, Trump got 48% of support in Nevada, to 47% for Harris.
Georgia (16 electoral votes) and North Carolina (16 electoral votes) are showing a slight lead for Trump, according to 528/ABC News polls, updated on October 31, 2024.
Overall, the seven swing states have shown a significant change in the polls since Harris entered the race. When Biden dropped out of the race, he was lagging behind Trump by an average of 5 percentage points.
