American voters are heading to the ballot boxes on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, to elect their new president, in a nearly tied-up race between the Democratic Kamala Harris and the Republican Donald Trump. However, third-party votes could be a game changer in the US Election 2024.
Third-party candidates on the ballot of battleground states in particular could be a crucial factor in deciding the race between Harris and Trump, as their minuscule share of the vote could tip the balance for either candidate.
Third-Party Candidates on the Ballot
There are four third-party candidates who could make a difference by drawing enough votes from Harris or Trump, especially in the swing states. Jill Stein of the Green party, Chase Oliver of the Libertarian Party, Cornel West, and Robert F Kennedy Jr. (who suspended his campaign) are raising alarm for both the Democratic and Republican presidential campaigns.
Although third-party candidates have almost no chance of winning the election, they could decide the outcome of the race, as the two main candidates remain neck and neck in the polls.
Commenting on this, the historian and professor at Boston University, Bruce Schulman, told Forbes: “This year third parties seem to be getting very little traction and are likely to play a very limited role, but [in] an extremely close election, where a few thousand votes in three or four states could determine the outcome, a third party that draws even in the tenths of 1% could make a difference.”
A Source of Concern
According to the Economist/YouGov and Times/Siena polls over the last week, third-party candidates got 3% to 4% of the vote, while Harris and Trump were 1% apart. Meanwhile, a CNN/SSRS poll of Michigan found that third-party candidates got the support of up to 6% of voters, while Harris was leading Trump by 5%.
Third-party candidates such as Stein and West are running to the left of Harris, raising the possibility of drawing more votes from her than Trump. On the other hand, Robert Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) is likely to get more voters from Trump.
Third-Party Candidates in the Polls
Stein and Kennedy are the third-party candidates with the biggest chance of drawing votes, according to the Guardian. Although Kennedy suspended his campaign in August and endorsed Trump, courts in Wisconsin and Michigan ruled that his name would stay on the ballot.
A CNN/SSRS poll, released on October 30, showed that in Michigan, Kennedy got 3%, Stein 2% and West 1%, while Harris led Trump by 5 percentage points. In Wisconsin, Kennedy and Stein got 1% each, while Harris led Trump by 6%.
On the other hand, in Georgia, where Stein and Oliver are on the ballot, Stein got 1% and Oliver 1%, while Trump led Harris by 1%. In North Carolina, each of Stein, Oliver and West has 1%, while Trump was ahead of Harris by 1%. Meanwhile, Stein and Oliver got 1% each in Pennsylvania, while Harris and Trump were tied, 48%-48%.
Protest Vote
American voters who are not satisfied with the Democratic and the Republican nominees will pivot to one of the third-party candidates. In Michigan, a key battleground state and home to a large Arab American and Muslim American population who are frustrated with Harris’ stance on Gaza, Stein stands to benefit.
Stein has courted Muslim and Arab voters, strongly criticizing Israel and the Biden administration. Moreover, she secured the endorsement of the American Arab and Muslim political action committee and the Abandon Harris group.
On this matter, Nura Sediqe, an assistant professor in American politics at Michigan State University, told the Guardian that Stein could eat away votes from the Democratic Party. “Arab Americans and American Muslims – there’s been a lot of talk in these specific subsets of voters about voting third party, so it may take their votes away. These are all folks that are more likely Democratic voters that might end up switching,” she said.
According to a national poll conducted by Arab News/YouGov, Trump got 45% support among Arab Americans, compared to 43% for Harris, while 4% supported the Green Party’s candidate, Jill Stein.
Another survey by the Council on American-Islamic Relations of American Muslims found that 42.3% of Muslim Americans plan to vote for Stein, to 41% for Harris and only 9.8% for Trump.
