India-Pakistan Tensions Soar, Islamabad Expects ‘Imminent’ Indian Incursion

Tensions between New Delhi and Islamabad are on the rise, following the deadly terror attack in the Indian-controlled region of Jammu and Kashmir which killed 26 tourists.

Relations between the two countries have rapidly deteriorated, with the Pakistani Defense Minister expecting an “imminent” military incursion by India, according to Reuters.

Military Incursion

In an interview with Reuters, Pakistan’s Defense Minister, Khawaja Muhammad Asif, said that India was ramping up its rhetoric and that the military had briefed the government on the possibility of an Indian attack. “There is a likelihood that India will attempt an incursion in Pakistan and will engage Pakistan militarily. That is a possibility, a very clear and stark possibility. It cannot be ruled out,” he said.

“We have reinforced our forces because it is something which is imminent now. So in that situation some strategic decisions have to be taken, so those decisions have been taken,” he noted.

The Pakistani Defense Minister pointed out that Islamabad has put its military on high alert to respond to any violation of its airspace, territories or seas. He ruled out the use of nuclear weapons unless “there is a direct threat to our existence,” Asif said.

Kashmir Attack

On April 22, 2025, gunmen opened fire at a group of tourists at a resort in the Himalayan region of Kashmir, killing 25 Indian citizens and one Nepali national. New Delhi said that the attack had “cross-border” links to Pakistan, adding that two suspected militants were Pakistani. Meanwhile, Islamabad denied any involvement and called for a neutral investigation.

Both countries have taken a series of retaliatory measures against each other. India downgraded diplomatic ties with Islamabad; suspended a crucial water-sharing agreement; closed a key border crossing between the two countries; and revoked all visas issued to Pakistani nationals.

Pakistan responded with closing its airspace for all Indian-owned or Indian-operated airlines, suspending all trade with India including via third countries, and cancelling visas for all Indian nationals.

Moreover, Indian and Pakistani troops exchanged gunfire for four days along the Line of Control (LOC) in the disputed Kashmir region, with no causalities reported.

Act of War

The suspension of the Indus Water Treaty, a crucial river-sharing pact, risks triggering a war between the two Asian neighbors. Pakistan warned that any Indian attempt to stop or divert the flow of water belonging to Pakistan would be considered an “act of war” and met with “full force across the complete spectrum” of Pakistan’s national power.

In the light of this, the Pakistani Defense Minister told Reuters that depriving vulnerable areas of water was an “act of war,” adding that the Indus Water Treaty has the backing of international guarantors.

“We have already gone to relevant quarters as far this treaty is concerned,” Asif said, urging the international community and the World Bank to protect the agreement.

International Mediation

India and Pakistan both claim the region of Kashmir in its entirety, with each administering part of it. In 2019, the Modi-led government revoked the region’s semi-autonomous status, bringing it under the direct control of New Delhi. This has raised tensions in the region.

Given that both India and Pakistan are nuclear powers, a military conflict could have severe consequences for the two countries and the entire region. Hence, several countries have tried to calm tensions between the two neighbors, calling for restraint.

With regards to this, Asif said that Pakistan had approached friendly countries, including Gulf States and China, and briefed the UK, the US, and other countries on the situation. “Some of our friends in the Arabian Gulf have talked to both sides,” he noted.

On Friday, Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister, Prince Faisal bin Farhan, held separate phone calls with the Indian Foreign Minister, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, and the Pakistani Foreign Minister, Ishaq Dar. They discussed the recent developments in the regions and efforts to de-escalate tensions.

China also hoped that both sides would show restraint and work towards de-escalation. On Sunday, Chinese Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, spoke to his Pakistani counterpart, telling him that “China advocates for a swift and fair investigation and believes that conflict does not serve the fundamental interests of either India or Pakistan, nor does it benefit regional peace and stability.”

US Position

As for the US, the Pakistani Defense Minister told Reuters that Washington was thus far “staying away” from involving in the issue. Last week, the US President, Donald Trump, said that India and Pakistan would “figure out relations between themselves.”

On Sunday, the US State Department said that Washington was in contact with both sides, urging them to work towards a “responsible solution.” A US State Department spokesperson said: “This is an evolving situation and we are monitoring developments closely. We have been in touch with the governments of India and Pakistan at multiple levels. The United States encourages all parties to work together towards a responsible resolution.”