A Venezuela Scenario in Iran? Dr. Youssef Badr on the Reality of Trump’s Threats
Washington and Tehran have escalated rhetoric amid a wave of large protests sweeping Iran. The US President, Donald Trump, said he was considering “very strong” military action against the Iranian regime.
Meanwhile, Iranian officials warned the US military assets in the region and Israel would be “legitimate targets” in case of a US attack on Iran.
The heightened tensions raise concerns over a Venezuela-like scenario, in which the US conducted a military operation in the Latin American country and captured its President, Nicolas Maduro.
Military Action on the Table
Doubling down on his previous threats, Trump again floated the idea of a military action against Iran in response to the country’s crackdown on protesters.
He said that he was receiving hourly updates on the situation, suggesting that the Iranian regime “is starting” to cross the red line he set for them by shooting protesters.
The US President said on Sunday that the military was considering “very strong options” in Iran. “We’ll make a determination,” he told reporters aboard Air Force One.
Although he did not elaborate, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing US officials, that Trump was weighing a range of military options, including conducting military strikes, deploying secret cyber weapons, expanding sanctions and providing online help to anti-government sources.
In light of this, Trump will convene his senior advisers on Tuesday to discuss options for Iran, according to US officials.
Additionally, Trump said that Iranian officials contacted him to “negotiate” its nuclear program because “they are tired of being beat up by the United States.” However, he warned that the US could act before the proposed meeting.
“We may meet with them. A meeting is being set up, but we may have to act because of what’s happening, before the meeting,” Trump said.
Situation under Control
On Monday, the Iranian Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, claimed that the situation in Iran has become “under total control,” following a spike in violence over the weekend in what he called a “terrorist war.”
“What is happening now is not protests, it is a terrorist war against the country. Iranian authorities possess audio recordings of voice messages sent to terrorist elements ordering them to open fire on civilians and security forces,” Araghchi said, according to Al-Jazeera.
Speaking to foreign diplomats in Tehran, Araghchi alleged that the protests “turned violent and bloody to give an excuse” for Trump to intervene.
Moreover, the Iranian Foreign Minister expressed his country’s openness to negotiations, but stressed its readiness to confront the US.
“The Islamic Republic of Iran is not seeking war but is fully prepared for war. We are also ready for negotiations but these negotiations should be fair, with equal rights and based on mutual respect,” he said.
Iran Protests
Iran has been gripped by nationwide protests since December 28, 2025 over the country’s economic hardship. The protests have seen a rise in violence, amid a shutdown of internet services and phone lines.
Although the Iranian government has not offered overall casualty figures, the US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) said at least 544 people have been killed so far, including 496 protesters and 48 security personnel, in addition to over 10,600 people detained.
Furthermore, Iran’s government called on supporters to take down to the streets in pro-government marches on Monday, announcing three days of mourning for what it called “martyrs” killed in a “national battle against the US and Israel.”
In response to the protests, Trump has threatened intervention to protect the protesters. Meanwhile, the Speaker of Iran’s Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, warned that US military troops and Israel would become “legitimate targets” in case of a US attack against Iran.
The Venezuela Playbook
Trump’s threats to Iran come at a precarious moment for the Middle East. Iran and Israel fought a war in June 2025, in which the US intervened by striking three of Iran’s key nuclear facilities. The 12-day war ended with a US-brokered ceasefire agreement.
While the region had recently begun to breathe a sigh of relief following a fragile ceasefire in Gaza, the renewed tensions in Iran now threaten to shatter those fledgling prospects for peace.
Commenting on the latest developments in Iran, Dr. Youssef Badr, a researcher of Middle Eastern affairs, told Leaders MENA that the stage is being set for every potential scenario, repeating the same playbook used in Venezuela and, previously, across the Arab world.
“Media outlets are pushing the narrative of regime change, with overseas protests undermining the regime’s international legitimacy. However, the situation on the ground does not reflect the views of the Iranian majority,” Dr. Badr explains.
“Furthermore, the extremist acts targeting public property and the burning of mosques lend weight to the narrative of foreign intelligence involvement,” he adds.
“The Iranian people are not Trump’s priority. For now, the situation remains a pressure campaign to force Iran to surrender to his demands – echoing the Venezuela playbook – as he watches for internal fractures,” Dr. Badr points out.
“Notably, Trump is re-engineering the global order to actively disrupt the economic corridors established by China,” he notes.
US Military Action against Iran
According to Dr. Badr, the Omani Foreign Minister’s recent visit to Tehran aimed to deliver a message from the US administration.
“Launching a military strike against Iran hinges on its tactical efficacy as a tool of pressure and, importantly, the potential blowback for Israel’s safety and US regional interests,” Dr. Badr notes.
“A military strike against Iran is viewed as an inevitable preemptive measure, targeting IRGC infrastructure and ballistic missile capabilities should Washington feel the need to reset Iran’s capabilities to their status immediately following the 12-Day War,” he explains.
However, the support provided by Moscow and Beijing to Tehran, evidenced by the disruption of Starlink internet services, suggests that Washington must reconsider its approach to Iran, Dr. Badr says.
An Imminent Regime Collapse?
Dr. Badr notes that the internal collapse of the regime is by no means a foregone conclusion. “So far, the regime remains cohesive,” he says.
“This is evident in its ability to organize pro-government rallies and observe three days of national mourning. Domestic indicators do not currently suggest an imminent downfall,” he tells Leaders MENA.
