The big picture: The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has escalated its confrontation with the US, threatening to close “all other export corridors that benefit the US and its allies,” Iranian media reported. This follows Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the US reimposition of a naval blockade on Iranian ports.
“Regional energy exports are either shared by all, or denied to all,” the IRGC stated in a Wednesday announcement carried by Iran’s IRNA state news agency.
Why it matters: The warning raises the risk of a second front opening in the Red Sea, threatening two of the world’s most critical energy corridors at once.
Analysts Warn of Dual Seaway Crisis
Analysts suggest Iran may deploy its Houthi allies in Yemen to block the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the narrow gateway that connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. It carries Saudi oil exports and a substantial share of global shipping.
A senior Houthi official warned on Monday that the group stands ready to close the strait. He claimed the move could send oil prices soaring to $200 per barrel if attacks on Yemen continue, according to Iran’s Press TV website. Houthi forces fired missiles at Saudi Arabia after accusing the kingdom of bombing an airport under their control, breaking a four-year truce.
The Houthis have already demonstrated their ability to choke global commerce through the Bab El-Mandeb. Following the Gaza war’s eruption in October 2023, the Iran-backed group launched attacks on Red Sea commercial shipping. It targeted vessels linked to Israel in support of Palestinians.
US Strikes and Iranian Retaliation
The latest threat comes a day after the US military announced fresh strikes, with the goal “to continue degrading Iranian capabilities used to attack commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.” The US reported that Iran attacked seven commercial ships over the past week. Nearly a dozen crew members were killed, missing, or injured.
US Central Command said Tuesday that it hit dozens of military targets near the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian coastal areas. The seven-hour wave of strikes targeted command-and-control, logistics, fuel, and military equipment facilities.
The IRGC responded Wednesday by claiming it targeted US Fifth Fleet facilities in Bahrain. It also claimed to have hit a logistics facility in Kuwait’s Mina Abdullah and a US base at Azraq in Jordan. Kuwait’s state news agency confirmed a fire at a targeted site. It remained unclear if this matched the IRGC’s description. Jordan’s air defense intercepted and shot down three ballistic missiles entering its airspace from Iran early Wednesday.
The IRGC stated the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed until “the end of America’s evils.” Before the conflict began in February, about one-fifth of global oil and gas shipments passed through Hormuz daily.
Diplomatic and Economic Fallout
US President Donald Trump threatened on Tuesday to hit Iranian power plants and bridges next week unless Tehran resumes negotiations. “I’ll save the energy targets for last, but ultimately we’ll hit energy targets,” Trump told Fox News’ Trey Yingst. US negotiators had contacted their Iranian counterparts to warn them “you better make a deal,” Trump added.
Trump on Monday floated a 20% fee on shipping through the strait. This drew sharp criticism from the UN shipping agency. He scrapped the idea Tuesday, saying he would instead seek investment deals with Gulf states.
What’s next: Oil prices rose on Wednesday after closing 2% higher to a one-month high on Tuesday. Brent closed at its highest since 12 June. West Texas Intermediate closed at its highest since June 15. Both contracts rose further in early Wednesday trading.
