By: Mohamed Ali
(Business Consultant, CEO of Inside Business Consulting)
In 2012, the MENA region’s digital landscape looked challenging for any new music startup. Music piracy was widespread, digital payments were clunky, and most people preferred free content. But two founders, Edward Maroun and Elie Habib, saw a chance where others saw problems. They launched Anghami, a music streaming service built for the unique tastes and challenges of the Arabic-speaking world.
Betting on Culture, Not Just Numbers
From the beginning, Maroun and Habib made a bold choice: invest early in expensive music licenses and a hybrid free/premium model. The data didn’t support their vision. Studies suggested MENA users wouldn’t pay for digital content, but their instincts told them a culturally focused platform could succeed. They were right. By February 2017, Anghami had 33 million registered users, and in March 2021, it went public on NASDAQ through a SPAC, achieving a $220 million valuation.
The Gut vs. Data Dilemma
Every entrepreneur faces the same question: trust the numbers or follow your instincts? This can be shown in a simple 2×2 matrix, where the horizontal axis represents the amount of data you have, and the vertical axis measures the strength of your gut feeling.
- Low Data, Low Gut: Guessing in the dark—like Amazon’s failed Fire Phone, which sold fewer than 35,000 units in two months and lost the company $170 million.
- Low Data, High Gut: High risk, high reward. Steve Jobs ignored market studies when launching the iPhone in 2006, changing the mobile industry forever.
- High Data, Low Gut: Safe but often slow. Think of Borders, which had the data to see the rise of e-commerce but outsourced its online sales to Amazon, leading to its downfall.
- High Data, High Gut: The sweet spot for innovation. Netflix made a bold bet with House of Cards in 2013, using deep viewer data without even filming a pilot episode.
The takeaway? Big breakthroughs often happen when strong instincts meet solid data. The key is knowing when to trust each.
Real-World Gutsy Moves
Talabat’s Local Banner Experiment
Talabat’s marketing team tested animated banners (which data suggested would boost conversions by 172%) against a simple image of a traditional Middle Eastern feast. Despite the numbers, they trusted their gut and chose the feast image, which improved conversions by 23% and lowered acquisition costs by 15.5%.
Careem’s Grocery Gamble
In early 2020, Careem noticed a spike in grocery orders during lockdowns. Instead of just focusing on ride-hailing, they quickly launched Careem Quik. By 2022, monthly grocery orders had grown 26 times, proving the power of quick, gut-driven decisions.
Choosing the Right Methodology Based on Your Stage
Choosing the right approach depends on your startup’s stage. Here’s a quick guide:
- Ideation Stage (From Idea to Concept)
- First Principles Thinking: Break problems down to their basics, like Elon Musk does at SpaceX. MNT-Halan, Egypt’s first unicorn, used this approach to rethink financial services.
- Design Thinking: Focus on real user needs and creative problem solving, used by IDEO and Apple. Jawwy by STC used this method to create a personalized mobile experience for Saudi youth.
- Blue Ocean Strategy: Create new markets instead of competing for the same customers, like Cirque du Soleil. MNT-Halan also did this by combining ride-hailing with fintech in Egypt.
- Building Stage (From Concept to Product)
- Lean Startup: Test ideas quickly with Minimum Viable Products (MVPs) to avoid wasting time on the wrong thing. Zain Innovation Campus (ZINC) in Jordan uses this approach to help startups.
- Jobs to Be Done (JTBD): Focus on the core job your product does for customers. Careem expanded by understanding what its users really needed beyond just rides.
- Growth Stage (From Product to Scale)
- AARRR (Pirate Metrics): Measure key metrics like Acquisition, Activation, Retention, Referral, and Revenue. Instabug, an Egyptian startup, uses this to keep its users engaged.
- RICE Scoring Model: Prioritize projects based on Reach, Impact, Confidence, and Effort. Vezeeta relies on this model to decide which features to build.
- OKRs (Objectives and Key Results): Set clear, measurable goals. Wuzzuf, Egypt’s leading job platform, uses OKRs to guide its growth.
- Scaling Stage (From Growth to Market Leadership)
- Cohort Analysis: Track how groups of users behave over time. Talabat uses this to improve customer retention.
- OODA Loop: Make fast, repeatable decisions. Aramex uses this to stay ahead in the fast-paced logistics industry.
- Sustainability Stage (From Leader to Legacy)
- Cynefin Framework: Choose the right approach for different types of problems. STC uses this for strategic planning.
- OKRs: Keep setting ambitious goals as your company scales. Souq.com (now Amazon MENA) used OKRs to fuel its rapid growth.
Your 5-Step Battle Plan
- Identify two ideas you believe can drive real impact.
- Gather quick data (mini tests, customer interviews) within a week or two.
- Trust your gut: What insights surprised you? What still feels right despite the numbers?
- Run hybrid experiments that blend both your data and intuition.
- Track a single key metric (like sales or retention) to measure success.
Conclusion: The Leap of Faith
Numbers are powerful, but so is your instinct. Don’t let spreadsheets stop you from seizing the moment, and don’t let gut feelings blind you to the facts. Maroun and Habib leaped when data said no, and today, Anghami stands as a testament to the power of intuition in the face of uncertainty. What leap will you take next?
