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INTERVIEW-Saudi Arabia Plays Pivotal Role in Promoting Regional Stability: Dr. Hesham Alghannam

From Gaza and Lebanon to Syria, Sudan and the US, Dr. Hesham Alghannam shares his insights with Leaders MENA Magazine

For almost 15 months, the Middle East has been a powder keg, as a result of the ongoing war between Hamas and Israel in Gaza which risked an all-out regional conflict.

The devastating war, which followed the October 7, 2023 attack on Israel, claimed the lives of more than 46,000 Palestinians, injured over 110,000 others, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry. Meanwhile, the widespread destruction caused by the war displaced 90% of the enclave’s population, according to UN figures.

Moreover, the war in Gaza sparked tensions across the region, escalating the fighting between the Lebanese-based group, Hezbollah, and Israel.

After intensified regional and international diplomatic efforts, led by Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Qatar and the US, Hezbollah and Israel reached a ceasefire agreement in November 2024. This was followed by a ceasefire deal between Hamas and Israel in Gaza on January 19, 2025.

In response to the regional crises, Saudi Arabia spearheaded diplomatic efforts to end the conflicts and restore stability in the region. To this end, the Kingdom hosted several high-level meetings and summits to end the conflicts Palestine, Lebanon, Syria and Sudan, and alleviate humanitarian suffering of their peoples.

In the light of this, Dr. Hesham Alghannam shares his perspectives on the recent geopolitical developments on the regional and international arenas.

Dr. Alghannam is a Saudi researcher and geopolitical expert with over 23 years of experience in consulting and research in politics and international relations. His research focuses on policy and strategy in Saudi Arabia and abroad.

Dr. Alghannam is the Director of the Security Research Center and General Supervisor of National Security and Counter-Terrorism Programs at Naif Arab University for Security Sciences.

Dr. Alghannam is also a fellow researcher and strategy consultant at various European, American and British think-tanks. He is a nonresident scholar at the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center. He has worked with the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, the King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies, and the Gulf Research Centre. He holds a Ph.D. from the University of Exeter.

In this exclusive interview with Leaders MENA Magazine, Dr. Hesham Alghannam offers in-depth insights on the Middle East crises, the return of Donald Trump to the White House, and the leading role of Saudi Arabia to end conflicts and promote regional stability.

Ceasefire Agreements in Gaza and Lebanon

Q: Is the region heading for de-escalation after the ceasefire agreements in Lebanon and Gaza? And do you think these agreements will hold?

After the recent ceasefire agreements in Gaza and Lebanon, the region seems to be witnessing a temporary calm. However, this calm appears fragile and reflects a complex reality that lacks fundamental solutions to the core issues.

In Lebanon, despite the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah, recent events, such as the targeting of civilians attempting to return to their homes, highlight the fragility of the situation and the ongoing tension along the southern border. For its part, Hezbollah continues to demonstrate its strength, affirming that the conflict has not ended but has been deferred, as various parties await international and regional developments.

Meanwhile, in Gaza, the ceasefire offers a chance to catch a breath after violent clashes, but it remains fraught with challenges. The ambiguity surrounding some provisions of the agreement, along with mutual distrust between Israel and Hamas, increases the likelihood of renewed conflict. Israel views the truce as an opportunity to reorganize its strategies, while Hamas uses this time to rebuild its capabilities and strengthen its internal and external influence, making the next conflict only a matter of time if unresolved issues persist.

In this context, the United States plays a critical role in shaping the course of events, especially under the administration of President Trump, whose Middle East policies are marked by ambiguity and sudden shifts. Decisions such as tightening sanctions on Iran or pushing for new peace agreements could reshape the regional equation, further deepening the uncertainty among active players. These conditions make the region appear to be in a “warrior’s respite,” as parties use the time to reassess their positions and prepare for potential new rounds of escalation.

Ultimately, the future of these agreements depends on the commitment of the involved parties and the international community’s ability to provide guarantees for calm. Nevertheless, the situation remains open to all possibilities, given the overlapping regional and international interests and the difficulty of achieving lasting resolutions to the region’s protracted conflicts.

The ceasefire in Gaza and Lebanon was the result of political and humanitarian pressures rather than an agreement to resolve the fundamental conflict. Core issues such as the blockade, occupation, and Palestinian demands remain unaddressed, leaving the agreements vulnerable to collapse at the first breach or escalation.

The presence of powers like Iran and Israel, which maintain conflicting interests in Lebanon and Gaza, along with the lack of a comprehensive solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, renders the truce fragile.

Israel’s Crackdown on the West Bank

Q: Israel has started a major military operation in Jenin just days after the Gaza ceasefire came into force. Why at this time and what are the objectives of this operation?

A few days after the Gaza ceasefire came into effect, Israel launched a major military operation in Jenin, reflecting a strategic shift in focus toward the West Bank. The timing of this operation suggests Israel’s intent to take advantage of the relative calm in Gaza to address what it perceives as pressing security threats in other areas. Jenin, known as a stronghold for armed groups such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad, has been a source of repeated attacks on Israeli targets, making it a key focus for dismantling infrastructure and preventing future attacks.

At the same time, the operation has raised significant international concern, with the United Nations warning of the potential use of excessive force by Israel, which could harm civilians and deepen the humanitarian crisis. These developments highlight the fragility of the ceasefire and the complexity of the security challenges Israel faces on multiple fronts. The escalation in Jenin appears to be part of a broader Israeli strategy to reshape the political and demographic landscape of the West Bank and Gaza, supported by US backing, including funding and political cover.

Israeli actions, including settlement expansion and military operations, aim to gradually erode the Palestinian presence. Economic pressures, such as the blockade on Gaza, are employed to push Palestinians toward forced migration, while military operations are carried out to intimidate civilians and destabilize their daily lives. This policy is implemented within a long-term strategic vision that consolidates Israeli dominance at the expense of Palestinian rights.

In light of this reality, the importance of international pressure on Israel to ensure its adherence to international law and halt violations becomes evident. Conversely, Palestinian unity and the development of a comprehensive vision for political and popular resistance remain essential to counter these policies and safeguard Palestinian rights in the long term.

Gaza Ceasefire Impact on Israel’s Domestic Politics

Q: How will the ceasefire agreement in Gaza affect Netanyahu’s government and Israel’s domestic politics?

The Gaza ceasefire has cast a heavy shadow over Israeli domestic politics and Benjamin Netanyahu’s government, exposing deep political and social divisions. While the temporary security calm may seem like an achievement, it has sparked a storm of controversy both within and outside the government.

The resignation of National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, a far-right figure, in protest of the agreement’s terms—including the release of Palestinian prisoners and concessions to Hamas—has highlighted ideological fractures within the ruling coalition. This move not only threatens the stability of the government but also raises concerns about the potential collapse of the coalition and the possibility of early elections.

On the popular level, public opinion is sharply divided between those who view the ceasefire as a welcome opportunity for calm and those who see it as capitulation to Hamas’ demands. Protests that erupted across the country reflect this anger, particularly among families affected by the attacks. Public demands for stricter terms and greater guarantees before any prisoner exchanges are amplifying pressure on Netanyahu’s government.

Internationally, the ceasefire has placed Netanyahu in a precarious position, particularly in his relationship with the United States. President Trump’s proposal to relocate Palestinians from Gaza faced widespread condemnation and sparked criticism both domestically and abroad. This tension risks undermining US diplomatic support, adding another layer of complexity to an already challenging situation.

Ultimately, the Gaza ceasefire has created a state of political and social tension in Israel, presenting Netanyahu’s government with a critical test. Success in navigating this phase depends on Netanyahu’s ability to maintain coalition cohesion, pacify Israeli public opinion, and manage international pressures effectively. However, the future of the government and the ceasefire agreement remains uncertain amid these intertwined challenges.

The prisoner exchange deal has caused significant internal divisions in Israel, particularly from the opposition and far-right factions, who see it as a concession to Hamas. This situation threatens the stability of Netanyahu’s government.

There are increasing calls to establish an investigative committee into Israel’s shortcomings during the Gaza war, putting Netanyahu in direct confrontation with the opposition and the public.

Israel’s acceptance of the ceasefire bolsters Hamas’ image as a capable force able to dictate terms, weakening Israel’s deterrence in the eyes of its own citizens and increasing pressure on the current government.

Syria’s Future

Q: What are the challenges facing the new administration in Syria? And do you think it will be able to address them?

Syria today stands at a historic crossroads, with its new administration facing a complex political, security, economic, and social landscape inherited from decades of authoritarianism and a devastating war that has left the country in a state of total collapse. This administration is confronted with the daunting task of rebuilding the state in a balanced manner that restores citizens’ trust, addresses foreign interventions, and establishes a just and inclusive system of governance.

Security challenges are among the most pressing obstacles, as remnants of the previous regime may seek to destabilize the country through their entrenched networks. Additionally, divisions among armed factions, each pursuing divergent agendas and relying on external support, further complicate the security landscape. Achieving stability requires precise strategies, including unifying weapons under state authority and building inclusive national security institutions that represent all citizens.

Politically, the new regime faces the significant challenge of regaining legitimacy after decades of repression and authoritarianism. This necessitates promoting transparency, holding free and fair elections under international supervision, and crafting an inclusive political discourse that meets the aspirations of the Syrian people in all their diversity.

Economically, rebuilding the country’s devastated infrastructure is an urgent priority, but international sanctions and limited resources complicate this endeavor. Addressing institutional corruption and reforming economic structures are essential pillars for restoring trust and attracting local and international investments. The administration must strengthen partnerships with donor countries, while focusing on reforming financial institutions and combating corruption effectively and transparently.

Socially, the fractured social fabric resulting from war and sectarian divisions poses a significant threat to long-term stability. National reconciliation, ensuring the safe and dignified return of refugees, and promoting education and coexistence programs are critical steps toward rebuilding the society.

Syria is currently in what can be described as a “recovery phase,” where the success of the nascent government depends on regional and international support for emergency aid and long-term developmental projects. However, the state may face retaliatory actions from harmed entities aiming to destabilize it through sporadic attacks, although these are likely to have only short-term effects if the government responds decisively and effectively.

The long-term vision relies on the administration’s ability to strike a balance among security, politics, economy, and society, offering the country a genuine opportunity to reshape its identity as a stable, sovereign state. The new Syria faces a critical test; success will require wise leadership, constructive international partnerships, and collective willpower to achieve the desired transformation.

The Return of Donald Trump

Q: How will the US President, Donald Trump, deal with the following issues: (Middle East conflicts, Iran, Russia-Ukraine war, and China)?

With Donald Trump’s return to the US presidency, significant shifts in American foreign policy are anticipated, characterized by a focus on national interests and a more isolationist approach.

Regarding the Middle East conflicts, Trump is likely to bolster his support for Israel, continuing his previous policies that included moving the US embassy to Jerusalem and recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights.

However, such unconditional support for Israel could escalate tensions with Palestinians and further complicate the peace process.

As for Iran, Trump is expected to revive the “maximum pressure” campaign by imposing even stricter economic sanctions to curb its nuclear program and regional influence. Additionally, he may adopt strategies aimed at weakening the growing alliance between Russia and Iran, particularly in light of recent strategic agreements between the two nations. This approach could heighten regional tensions, increasing the likelihood of indirect confrontations between the US and Iran.

In the case of the Russia-Ukraine war, Trump is likely to pursue direct negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the conflict, prioritizing a quick settlement. This could involve offering concessions to Russia, such as recognizing its influence in certain areas in exchange for its withdrawal from others. Such a strategy may alarm US allies in Europe, who fear it could undermine NATO’s unity and security.

When it comes to China, Trump is expected to continue his tough trade policies, focusing on reducing the trade deficit and countering what he perceives as unfair trade practices. This may include imposing additional tariffs on Chinese imports and pursuing economic decoupling in strategic sectors.

Overall, Trump’s foreign policy is expected to prioritize immediate American interests, reduce international commitments, and renegotiate existing agreements to align with US priorities. This approach could reshape global alliances and prompt a reevaluation of the US role on the international stage.

Sudan’s Conflict

Q: Why is the conflict in Sudan not getting enough attention from the international community? And in your opinion, how and when will this conflict come to an end?

The lack of significant international attention to the conflict in Sudan can be attributed to a combination of factors tied to geopolitical priorities and economic interests.

Despite the deep humanitarian crisis engulfing Sudan, major powers have approached the situation with a narrow utilitarian perspective. Once they evacuated their citizens, Sudan dropped in priority, as these countries shifted their focus to issues they consider more pressing, such as the Russia-Ukraine war and tensions in East Asia. This marginalization has also been evident in Sudan’s absence from the agendas of major international and regional summits, such as the African Union summit in February 2024, reflecting a lack of global political will to address the crisis.

Additionally, international institutions, including the United Nations, suffer from structural weaknesses in their ability to protect civilians and uphold human rights in Sudan, further undermining their effectiveness in responding to the crisis. The situation is exacerbated by a decline in commitments from donor countries, with the humanitarian response plan receiving only 21% of the required funding. This shortfall has deepened the humanitarian crisis, leaving millions of Sudanese without adequate assistance.

On another level, the global perception of Africa, including Sudan, is often reduced to economic interests. International powers view Sudan primarily as a source of natural resources such as gold and rare minerals. Ongoing conflicts are managed in a way that allows certain countries and corporations to exploit these resources with minimal restrictions, taking advantage of weak central governments and internal divisions. As a result, prolonged conflicts serve the agendas of these actors, who see chaos as a means to access resources at lower costs and with limited impact on state sovereignty.

Sudan’s lack of direct strategic threat to major powers further explains the tepid international response. However, some regional and global actors benefit from the ongoing conflict through arms trade or by enhancing their political and economic influence. This dynamic suggests that the absence of swift solutions is not coincidental but rather part of a more complex set of interests.

Ending the conflict requires a more serious international effort, including applying effective diplomatic pressure on the warring parties, providing urgent humanitarian aid to those affected, and bolstering regional and international mediation efforts to reach a comprehensive political solution.

However, the timing of the conflict’s resolution depends on the willingness of Sudanese parties to cooperate and the level of international pressure to achieve peace. Until then, Sudan remains trapped in a cycle of chaos, perpetuated by economic and political interests that benefit from the ongoing instability.

Saudi Arabia’s Regional Leadership

Q: Saudi Arabia has played an effective and active role in mobilizing a unified Arab and regional stance to end the conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon, support Syria, and resolve the Sudan conflict, how do you see this role? And how will it impact the regional dynamics?

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has played a pivotal role in unifying Arab and regional positions to end conflicts and promote stability in the region, with a particular focus on crises in Lebanon, Gaza, Syria, and Sudan.

In Lebanon, Saudi Arabia responded positively to political developments by supporting the election of President Joseph Aoun and strengthening cooperation through the visit of the Saudi Foreign Minister to Beirut. This move aims to restore trust and reinforce Lebanese sovereignty amidst ongoing reform efforts.

Regarding Gaza, the Kingdom, in collaboration with Egypt, has actively worked to advance ceasefire efforts, expressing deep concern over the humanitarian catastrophe resulting from the conflict, reflecting its unwavering commitment to supporting the Palestinian cause.

In Syria, following the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, Saudi Arabia has demonstrated a commitment to rebuilding relations and promoting stability, emphasizing the importance of Syria reclaiming its regional role within a comprehensive vision to enhance Arab solidarity.

As for Sudan, the Kingdom’s efforts have been marked by quiet and effective diplomacy, bringing adversaries to the negotiation table to prioritize the interests of the Sudanese people and work toward a sustainable resolution. However, the absence of strong international will to take decisive steps toward ending the fighting remains a significant obstacle to achieving lasting peace.

These persistent efforts highlight Saudi Arabia’s dedication to its leadership role in the region, driven by religious and strategic imperatives to preserve the region’s identity and prevent fragmentation. Riyadh has shouldered significant political and economic burdens to foster Arab solidarity and has demonstrated its ability to achieve tangible results despite immense challenges.

The Kingdom’s unseen efforts may outweigh what is visible, but it continues its work with determination, fully aware that meaningful change requires patience and perseverance, guided by a strategic vision to protect the region from disintegration and secure a better future for its people.

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