The US can only confirm the certain destruction of one-third of Iran’s missile arsenal after a month of conflict, five people familiar with US intelligence assessments told Reuters. The sources said that while bombings likely damaged or buried another third in underground tunnels, the exact status of those weapons remains dangerously unclear. Consequently, Tehran may still possess a significant inventory capable of recovery once the current round of heavy fighting finally stops.
These findings stand in sharp contrast to President Donald Trump’s public remarks claiming that Iran has “very few rockets left.” However, the President also acknowledged the persistent threat to future operations intended to safeguard the economically vital Strait of Hormuz. “One percent is unacceptable, because one percent is a missile going into the hull of a ship,” Trump stated on Thursday.
Democratic Representative Seth Moulton, a Marine Corps veteran, also disputed the administration’s optimistic narrative regarding the impact of the war. “If Iran is smart they’ve retained some of their capability—they’re not using everything that they have,” Moulton cautioned reporters.
Resilience of Underground Facilities
Operation “Epic Fury” has hit over 10,000 military targets and sunk 92% of the Iranian navy’s largest surface vessels. Nevertheless, Iran continues to demonstrate military resilience by launching ballistic missiles at the United Arab Emirates and distant military bases. Experts suggest that the Trump administration may have overstated the degradation of Iranian forces due to the country’s vast tunneling.
Nicole Grajewski, an expert on Iranian forces, noted that Iran sustains strikes from facilities that the US has heavily bombed. “The fact that they’ve managed to sustain this indicates the US was overstating the success of its operation,” she said.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth recently acknowledged the difficulty of hunting down weapons hidden within Iran’s expansive and sophisticated underground network. Because the US never disclosed a firm estimate of the pre-war stockpile, determining a precise percentage of destruction remains impossible.
Furthermore, Israeli officials estimate that eliminating the final 30% of Iran’s capacity will prove significantly more difficult than initial strikes.
