The US President Joe Biden has warned Israel that his administration would halt some weapons shipments if Israeli military moved ahead with a major invasion of the city of Rafah, in southern Gaza.
This announcement came at a critical timing, as the US President has come under extraordinary pressure to reduce arms shipments to Israel amid the dire humanitarian crisis in Gaza.
A Blunt Warning
In an interview with CNN on Wednesday, Biden said: “I made it clear that if they go into Rafah, I’m not supplying the weapons that have been used historically to deal with Rafah, to deal with the cities – that deal with that problem.”
In a stark recognition of the US role in the war, Biden acknowledged that Israel has used US weapons to kill civilians in Gaza. He said: “Civilians have been killed in Gaza as a consequence of those bombs and other ways in which they go after population centers,” referring to a shipment of 2,000-pound bombs that the US President paused last week.
Biden reassured Israel that the US will continue providing defensive weapons, but other supplies will stop in the case of a major ground invasion of Rafah.
He said: “We’re going to continue to make sure Israel is secure in terms of Iron Dome and their ability to respond to attacks that came out of the Middle East recently. But it’s just wrong. We’re not going to – we’re not going to supply the weapons and artillery shells.”
A Turning Point
The US president has been facing increasing pressure, most notably from Democrats and progressives, to limit or cut off arms shipments to Israel. His recent announcement marked a turning point in the Israeli war on Gaza, that has entered its seventh month.
The Biden administration is highly concerned over Israel’s plans to invade Rafah, where more than 1 million Palestinians are taking shelter. Last week, it paused a shipment of US-made ammunitions to Israel, Axios reported. The Associated Press (AP), citing a US senior official, said the shipment consisted of 3,500 bombs.
Growing Dispute
The US decision has caused “deep frustration” for the Israeli officials, CNN cited a source briefed on the matter. The public linking of American weapons shipments to Israel’s conduct of the war could deepen the rift between Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Israel ordered the evacuation of tens of thousands of civilians from Rafah and launched air bombing campaign near the city’s border areas. Biden pointed out that Israel had not entered heavily populated zones. He said that he told Netanyahu and other Israeli officials that the US would not support operations in population centers.
Biden said: “I’ve made it clear to Bibi and the war cabinet: They’re not going to get our support, if in fact they go on these population centers,” drawing parallels to the US experience in Afghanistan and Iraq. “I said to Bibi, ‘Don’t make the same mistake we made in America,” he said.
Cliff Kupchan, chairman of the Eurasia Group, told the New York Times: “The decision means Biden has decided to use his only real form of leverage over Bibi — withholding weapons,” calling this a “low point for US-Israel relations.”
The decision of pausing weapons shipments has caught the attention of Netanyahu and his government, causing great concern among Israeli officials. Shalom Lipner, who served as an adviser to several Israeli prime ministers, said the announcement “struck a deep chord of concern within Israel.”
He added that people are wondering how to reconcile limiting Israel’s access to weaponry with Biden’s oft-repeated ironclad commitment to its security. Lipner said that “it would be to Israel’s strategic detriment for the Netanyahu government to ignore the loud pushback from its main provider of military and diplomatic support.”
Further Deterioration
Israel’s actions in Rafah come amid the ongoing negotiations to reach a cease-fire agreement in exchange for the release of the remaining Israeli hostages in Gaza. While reaching such a deal remains uncertain, analysts believe it could be the only way to avoid further deterioration in the relations between the Biden administration and Israel.
Elliott Abrams, a senior fellow for Middle Eastern studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) who served in multiple Republican administrations, told NYT: “What they’re asking for is for Israel not to go into Rafah in a significant way. Barring a hostage deal, I think the Israelis are going to go into Rafah and it is going to cause a great deal of tension.”
Kupchan, chairman of the Eurasia Group, said that what happens next will determine the course of the US-Israeli relations. If Netanyahu acceded to Biden’s opposition to invading Rafah, tensions could ease. But if both leaders remained at a deadlock, this could prompt the Biden administration to cut off weapons on a wider scale, leading to a deeper rift with a long-lasting effect.
“The foundation of US-Israel relations is so strong that it won’t be significantly damaged by this move. Further withholdings, however, while quite unlikely, would be a different story,” Kupchan said.
