China’s capacity to launch a direct missile strike on Australia is growing, according to a new report from the Lowy Institute, an Australian think tank. The report cited Beijing’s expanding arsenal of long-range and hypersonic weapons, alongside its continued construction of artificial islands in the South China Sea.
The study found that the most significant danger to Australia comes from missiles launched by Chinese ships and submarines, as well as a new intermediate-range ballistic missile capable of reaching the continent directly from China.
China’s strike capability will likely increase over the next decade as the DF-27 intermediate-range ballistic missile, and potentially a conventionally armed intercontinental ballistic missile, grow in service numbers. According to the US military, the DF-27 has a range of between 5,000 and 8,000 kilometers.
Furthermore, the Dong Feng-26 missile could reach northern Australia if deployed from one of China’s man-made islands in the South China Sea. The report also noted that the public does not fully grasp this direct military risk, while stressing that it focused on Beijing’s capability rather than its intentions.
Call for Informed Debate
Sam Roggeveen, director of the Lowy Institute’s International Security Program, described the report as “neither hawkish nor dovish, neither alarmist nor complacent.” He added that the growth of the People’s Liberation Army represents the most significant development for Australian security since the Soviet Union’s collapse, and that Australians urgently need a more informed discussion on the issue.
Although Canberra revised its military strategy three years ago in response to China’s naval expansion, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s government has so far avoided discussing the possibility of a direct attack on the mainland.
Meanwhile, Australia continues to compete with China for security partnerships across the South Pacific, aiming to prevent Beijing from establishing a regional base.
