By: Colonel (Ret.) Abbas Dahouk
Iraq has long been at the crossroads of regional and global geopolitics. As a country embroiled in decades of conflict and political instability, Iraq has faced enormous pressure to maintain its internal stability while balancing the interests of competing international powers. But Iraq’s path forward is clear: for the country to project security and play a constructive role in the region, its stability must be the top priority.
The Iraqi government finds itself navigating complex regional dynamics, including entrenched tensions between the US and Iran, the persistence of non-state militias, and growing instability in neighboring Syria. However, Iraq has a significant opportunity to play a pivotal role in regional security by focusing on three key strategies: navigating regional diplomacy with neutrality, regulating non-state militia groups, and enhancing border security.
Navigating Regional Diplomacy: Neutrality Is Key
Iraq’s strategic location between regional powers like Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Turkey naturally positions it as a diplomatic mediator. By leveraging its alliances with both Western and regional actors, Iraq can play a pivotal role in fostering dialogue and deescalating tensions. However, this task is not easy, particularly considering the longstanding regional rivalries.
At last month’s conference in Baghdad, sponsored by the Iraqi Institute for Dialogue, the Prime Minister of Iraq, Mohammed Shia’ Al-Sudani, emphasized the important diplomatic breakthrough in 2021 when Iraq took the initiative to open dialogue between Iran and Saudi Arabia, restoring diplomatic ties in March 2023.
This diplomatic victory demonstrates Iraq’s potential as a stabilizing force. The Iraqi government can continue this momentum, facilitating dialogue between these two regional powers and ensuring that Iraq remains a neutral bridge between them. Furthermore, Iraq can mediate between the US and Iran on key issues such as the presence of US troops in the levant and the ongoing sanctions affecting Iraq, Iran, and Syria. The trust between the US and Iran is at an all-time low. Iraq can position itself as a neutral actor, avoiding military entanglements with either side while ensuring that Iraq’s interests are safeguarded.
Maintaining this diplomatic neutrality will help Iraq avoid becoming a stake in the US-Iran rivalry and ensure its sovereignty is respected. Avoiding direct military alignment with Iran, while continuing diplomatic relations, is essential for maintaining Iraq’s independence. Iraq can also continue to negotiate a phased US troop withdrawal, ensuring that its security forces are adequately equipped to handle internal and external threats.
Regulating Non-State Militias: A National Security Imperative
The proliferation of non-state militias in Iraq, often linked to regional actors, remains a serious threat to the country’s stability. These groups not only undermine Iraq’s sovereignty but also contribute to regional instability. At the same conference, senior Iraqi officials and distinguished experts emphasized the need for a comprehensive approach to regulating these militias, and any solution will require security sector reforms and disarmament initiatives.
One crucial step is integrating militia members into official security forces. This would ensure that all armed groups operate under the authority of the state and adhere to national laws, reducing the influence of these groups and preventing them from operating as shadow armies. Disarming groups that refuse to integrate and offering economic incentives for their members to transition to civilian life is also vital to eliminating the threat these militias pose.
Additionally, Iraq must continue to invest in its security forces, equipping them with the training and resources needed to combat unauthorized armed groups. This investment will not only strengthen Iraq’s stability but also curb the spread of militia influence into neighboring countries, reducing regional security threats.
Enhancing Border Security: Regional Security Begins at the Borders
Iraq’s borders are porous, which allows for the free movement of militants, weapons, and illicit goods; factors that destabilize both Iraq and its neighbors. Iraq shares borders with Syria, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Turkey, Kuwait, and Iran, all of which have unique security challenges. Securing these borders is crucial to preventing the spread of violence and extremism into Iraq and beyond.
The most critical border for Iraq’s security is its 605 km frontier with Syria, which has long been a conduit for ISIS activity. The borders with Jordan, Turkey, and Iran also pose significant risks, whether from smuggling or the movement of militant groups.
To secure these borders, Iraq must enhance its military presence along key border zones, particularly in areas most vulnerable to smuggling and militant activity. Expanding intelligence-sharing and coordinating border security efforts with neighboring countries such as Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Turkey is essential. These countries have made significant strides in securing their borders and expect Iraq to reciprocate. To meet this standard, Iraq must implement advanced surveillance technologies—such as sensors and cameras—to enhance border monitoring and ensure real-time threat detection per regional security norms.
Conclusion: Two Overarching Strategies for Iraq’s Security
To address Iraq’s internal and regional challenges, the government must prioritize two overarching strategies:
- Strengthening Diplomatic Neutrality: Iraq can establish itself as a neutral mediator in regional disputes, fostering dialogue, easing tensions among its neighbors, and promoting long-term stability. By balancing its relationships with regional and international powers, Iraq can avoid being drawn into external conflicts while safeguarding its sovereignty.
- Preventing Regional Spillover: Regulating non-state militias and strengthening border security are essential to preventing conflicts within Iraq and stopping their spillover into neighboring countries. By securing its borders and regulating its militias, Iraq can safeguard its stability while contributing to regional security.
Iraq’s stability is vital for the broader Middle East, and it is in Iraq’s best interest to focus on securing its internal borders and fostering a stable, neutral diplomatic role in the region. Only when Iraq is stable at home can it effectively project security and play a constructive role in regional peacebuilding.
About the author:
Colonel Abbas Dahouk (US Army, Ret.) is a Former Senior Military Advisor to US Department of State and Member of the Board of Directors of the National Council on US-Arab Relations. This article draws on his remarks during the 7th Baghdad Dialogue.
