Global humanitarian supply chains will not recover from the Middle East conflict before 2027, even if the war ends today, the United Nations (UN) warned on Tuesday.
Nearly 100 days after US-Israeli strikes on Iran triggered the conflict on 28 February, its consequences are rippling far beyond the region, as Jean-Cedric Meeus, chief of global transport and logistics at UNICEF, delivered the stark assessment from Mogadishu, Somalia.
“The disruption to the global humanitarian supply chain is impacting children across all the globe, with continued congestion in global supply chain routes and higher costs,” Meeus told a press conference in Geneva.
Hormuz Blockage Sends Costs Soaring
Weeks of indirect US-Iran negotiations, threats, and airstrikes have failed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the critical corridor for Gulf oil and gas exports. Consequently, the effects are spreading well beyond the Middle East.
Air freight capacity has tightened across the region, as some airlines have suspended African routes entirely. Port congestion is meanwhile spreading across the African continent. Most strikingly, air freight costs for vaccines travelling from India to Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo have surged by 50 to 70%.
“What begins as a disruption to lanes into the Middle East spirals directly into humanitarian crisis,” Meeus said. “Behind this cascading disruption is a simple but brutal equation,” every extra dollar spent on transport means one fewer dollar reaching children in need.
Funding Crisis Compounds the Pressure
Meeus warned that persistent delays and elevated operational costs, set against a backdrop of a global funding crunch, are already forcing “impossible choices” on aid workers.
US President Donald Trump said on Monday that talks with Iran were advancing at a “rapid pace.” Nevertheless, Tehran has threatened to keep the strait blocked. Meeus stressed that even a deal would bring no quick relief: “The situation will not improve before the end of the year” for UNICEF’s supply lines.
