US President Donald Trump declared on Wednesday that the ceasefire with Iran was “over,” following a heavy exchange of strikes overnight.
While Trump suggested that his negotiators could keep talking, his remarks threw the status of the recently signed Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) into deep uncertainty, raising fears of renewed conflict.
Ceasefire ‘Over’
What He’s Saying: Speaking to reporters ahead of the NATO Summit in Ankara, Türkiye, Trump said that the ceasefire with Iran was “over,” blasting the Iranian regime.
“To me, I think it’s over. I don’t want to deal with them anymore. They’re scum. They’re sick people,” he said. Trump also noted that he considered dealing with the Iranians a “waste of time.”
Driving The News: US Central Command (CENTCOM) launched a wave of “powerful” military strikes against over 80 Iranian targets, in response to Iranian attacks on three commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
The targets hit in the US strikes included air defense systems, command and control networks, coastal radar sites, anti-ship missile capabilities, and more than 60 Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) small boats in and near the Strait.
The US also revoked a license allowing Iran to sell oil in response to attacks on three tankers in Hormuz.
Iran’s IRGC retaliated by launching strikes against Bahrain and Kuwait, claiming that they targeted US military sites in the two Gulf countries and shot down a US MQ-9 drone attempting to interfere in the operation.
Negotiations in Doubt
Trump’s remarks cast uncertainty about the ongoing negotiations with Iran to reach a final agreement. The US President said he would speak with his envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, who led the US negotiating team.
“Frankly, I don’t want to waste my time with them. Now, I’ll let our wonderful negotiators keep talking if they want, but I don’t see it,” he said.
“As far as I’m concerned, it’s just a waste of time dealing with them. They’re liars,” Trump added.
The Big Picture: The US and Iran signed the Islamabad MoU on June 18. The Pakistani-mediated preliminary deal halted the fighting, reopened the Strait of Hormuz and initiated a 60-day negotiation period to resolve disputed issues and reach a comprehensive agreement. Two rounds of technical talks already took place in Switzerland and Qatar.
What’s Next?
Trump renewed his threats to launch additional strikes on Iran on Wednesday. “I’ll give them a little warning, we’re going to hit them hard again tonight,” he told reporters before a meeting with the Ukrainian President at the NATO summit.
State of Play: Trump threatened to strike Iran’s civilian infrastructure and to seize Kharg Island – a key Iranian oil hub. “Maybe we’ll take over Kharg Island. We may take over Kharg Island. There’s not a thing they could do about it,” Trump said.
Iranian officials, for their part, warned of a harsh response to any American attacks. Iran’s Army Chief of Staff and Deouty Coordinator Habibollah Sayyari threatened to turn the country’s coastline into a “hell” for US forces if they attempted a ground invasion.
“The enemy knows that if it makes such a mistake, it will enter a hell from which it will no longer have a way out,” he warned, according to the Iranian state news agency IRNA.
“I promise that no matter how much the enemy makes slogans, it will still not dare to deploy forces on our shores,” he added.
Possible Scenarios
The recent escalation casts doubt on the fate of the Islamabad MoU and the ongoing negotiations, raising questions about what could happen next. This leaves us in front of four possible scenarios, according to Newsweek.
Limited Escalation:
The first possible scenario is a return to a limited war, where the US and Iran trade powerful strikes but on a limited set of targets, including vessels, bases, launch sites, air defenses, and ports. Each side will frame the strikes as a retaliation and blame the other for starting it.
Pressured Diplomacy:
The second scenario is that Trump tries to pressure Iran to negotiate on his terms. Leaving room for negotiators while expressing skepticism is a classic Trump “carrot and stick” approach.
As each side has its own reasons to avoid a resumption of war, negotiations will resume over security at Hormuz in exchange for limits on Iran’s nuclear program, sanctions relief, or diplomatic recognition.
Regional Conflict:
The escalation could lead to unintended regional expansion triggered by a proxy attack hitting the wrong target, a US strike causing a mass-casualty incident, or a unilateral Israeli action. In this scenario, the war could spiral out of control if the attacks go beyond Hormuz and US bases.
Oil-driven De-escalation:
Trump’s comments immediately sparked a surge in oil prices. In this scenario, the pressure will come from energy markets. A sustained oil shock will affect Trump’s approval ratings in the upcoming mid-term elections. It will also squeeze the Iranian regime’s ability to fund salaries or subsidies.
Thus, both sides will resume fewer strikes, sharpen public rhetoric, involve more intermediaries, and exert quiet efforts to resume shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
