A preliminary US intelligence assessment has revealed that recent strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities may have only delayed Tehran’s program by months, three sources familiar with the matter shared this information with Reuters. The Defense Intelligence Agency prepared the initial report, which is one of 18 US intelligence agencies.
The assessment indicates that Iran could restart its nuclear program within months. One source estimated that the earliest restart could occur in one to two months. This classified assessment contradicts statements from President Donald Trump and high-ranking US officials, including Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. They claimed the strikes effectively eliminated Iran’s nuclear capabilities.
On Tuesday, Trump’s administration informed the UN Security Council that the strikes had “degraded” Iran’s nuclear program. This statement fell short of Trump’s earlier claim that the facilities had been “obliterated.” When asked for comment, the White House referred to spokesperson Karoline Leavitt’s statement to CNN. She called the assessment “flat-out wrong.”
“Everyone knows what happens when you drop fourteen 30,000-pound bombs perfectly on their targets: total obliteration,” Leavitt stated.
Damage Assessment Remains Uncertain
A US official who reviewed the assessment noted that it included several caveats and “ifs.” This official also mentioned that a more refined report is expected in the coming days. Analysts suggest that if the assessment relied on satellite imagery, it might not reveal the full extent of damage to the deeply buried Fordo uranium enrichment facility.
Trump has argued that the attacks were necessary to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon. However, Iran denies seeking such a weapon, asserting that its nuclear program serves peaceful purposes.
Evaluating the damage at the Fordo, Isfahan, and Natanz nuclear sites presents significant challenges. The Defense Intelligence Agency is not the only agency tasked with this evaluation. One source indicated that the assessment faced disagreement and was not universally accepted.
A US official, speaking anonymously, stated that the true extent of the damage remains unknown. Nevertheless, the initial assessment suggests that the strikes may not have been as successful as the Trump administration claims.
Infrastructure Damage Reported
The report indicates the US attack caved in facility entrances and damaged infrastructure. However, one source noted that the strike did not collapse underground buildings. Restarting operations will depend on how long it takes Iran to dig out and repair power and water supply facilities.
The Washington Post reported some centrifuges for enriching uranium remained intact after the strikes. The Pentagon disputed claims that the damage was insignificant but did not deny the existence of the DIA assessment.
“Based on everything we have seen — and I’ve seen it all — our bombing campaign obliterated Iran’s ability to create nuclear weapons,” Hegseth stated to Reuters. He emphasized that the bombs hit their targets perfectly, resulting in devastating impacts buried under rubble.
However, one source indicated that Iran’s enriched uranium stocks had not been eliminated. David Albright, a former UN nuclear inspector, expressed that the US attack effectively destroyed Iran’s uranium enrichment program for now. However, he warned that it failed to eliminate the longer-term threat.
“Iran retains an ability to break out and produce weapon-grade uranium,” Albright stated in a post on X. He highlighted that Iran’s stock of near-weapons-grade highly enriched uranium, sufficient for about nine warheads, remains unaccounted for.
Ongoing Debate and Canceled Briefings
Initial military assessments can evolve as more information becomes available. It is common for opinions to vary across different US intelligence agencies. Democrats have previously stated that Trump’s claims about the strikes eliminating or significantly hindering Iran’s nuclear program lack supporting evidence.
“There’s zero evidence that I’ve seen that the nuclear program was completely and totally obliterated as Donald Trump has claimed,” House of Representatives Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries said on Monday.
Classified briefings for members of the House of Representatives and Senate regarding this matter were canceled on Tuesday.
