After the assassination of Hamas leader, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran on Wednesday, and the killing of Hezbollah Commander, Fouad Shukr, in Beirut a day earlier, fears are growing that Iran and its allies will retaliate against Israel, pushing the region into an all-out war.
Speaking to Al-Hadath TV, Colonel Abbas Dahouk, Former Senior Military Advisor to US Department of State, expected that Iran’s response to Israel will be limited in scale to avoid sparking a wider regional war.
Iran’s Response
“This is perhaps expected but it is a matter of when, where and how. Militias in the Middle East and Iran’s arms have other avenues to respond. Additionally, Israeli embassies worldwide are in high alert and have more security protection. Israeli athletes participating in the Paris Olympic also have security protection,” Dahouk said.
“There may be a surprise factor in any response, making it hard to expect what that response might look like. However, both Israel and Iran do not seek a full-scale war. This is why both sides’ response will be limited.
“Iran will certainly respond, and the US does not seek escalation but if Israel is attacked, this US administration will defend it, just like what happened in April when Israel was attacked by missiles,” he said.
Blow to Iran’s Image
The assassination of a senior leader as Ismail Haniyeh, as well as Hezbollah’s commander Fouad Shukr, has negatively impacted Iran’s image in the region, so it might respond in an attempt not to lose its proxies in the Middle East.
In this regard, Dahouk said: “Unfortunately, this is a vicious circle in conflict management. This was a hard blow from Israel, which proved it has the ability to reach Hezbollah’s leaders and to strike deep inside Iran.”
He added: “This is unlike what happened on October 7, when we saw a major failure in Israeli defenses. Iran will try to surprise Israel with its response. Iran has the capability to launch missiles from various locations. Therefore, there might be attacks from Lebanon, Iraq, Syria and Iran.”
“However, these attacks will be of limited scale and within a specific time frame. Otherwise, it will be hard for Iran to do more than that or it will have to bear consequences. An Iranian escalation will be met with an Israeli escalation. In this case, the US will be forced to intervene to help Israel,” Dahouk said.
