The US is preparing for a potential attack by Iran that could come within the next week, in response to the Israeli airstrike on Monday that killed top Iranian commanders in Damascus, CNN revealed citing a senior US administration official.
The official said that the US is on high alert, as senior US officials believe that an attack by Iran is “inevitable”, a view shared by their Israeli counterparts.
The two governments believe that their assets and personnel are potential targets, and are actively working to gear up ahead of what is to come, as they expect that the Iranian attack could unfold in various ways.
Tehran vowed to retaliate after Israel’s strike on Iran’s embassy complex in Syria, which killed at least 7 officials, including Mohammed Reza Zahedi, a top commander in Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRCG), and Mohammad Hadi Haji Rahimi, a senior commander.
The expected Iranian attack was a key issue of discussion on President’s Joe Biden phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Thursday.
One of the worst-case scenarios that the Biden’s administration is preparing for would be a direct Iranian strike on Israel, as this would lead to a rapid escalation of the turbulent situation in the region.
Such a strike could cause the Israel-Hamas war to widen into an all-out regional conflict, something the US has sought to avoid.
Right after the attack on the Iranian embassy, the US informed Iran that the Biden administration was not involved and didn’t have prior knowledge of the strike, and has warned Tehran against targeting American assets.
A State Department spokesperson told CNN on Friday that the US has warned Iran not to use the Israeli airstrike in Damascus as “a pretext to attack US personnel and facilities,” saying that the warning was a response to a message from Iran.
According to a senior administration official, the message blamed the US for the Damascus attack, although it was not clear what Tehran conveyed to Washington in that message.
Iran has options to retaliate against Israel, but all carry potential risk. It could unleash its proxies to attack US forces in the region, use them to strike Israel directly or ramp up its nuclear program, which the US has long sought to restrain.
Speaking to Reuters, on condition of anonymity, one source said Iran is facing the dilemma of wanting to respond to deter Israeli strikes while avoiding being dragged into an all-out war.
“They are trying to modulate their actions in a way that shows that they are responsive but not escalatory,” he said. He added that if they don’t respond, “it really would be a signal that their deterrence is a paper tiger,” saying Iran might target Israeli embassies or Jewish facilities abroad.
Elliott Abrams, a Middle East expert at the Council on Foreign Relations, said that Iran could target Israeli interests. He said, “I think Iran does not want a big Israel-Hezbollah war right now, so any response will not come in the form of a big Hezbollah action.”
He added that they have other ways to respond “for example by trying to blow up an Israeli embassy.”
Iran could also respond by accelerating its nuclear program, through increasing the purity of its enriched uranium to 90%, which is considered bomb grade, or reviving work to produce a nuclear weapon. But these two steps could entail Israeli or US strikes.
However, Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East Program at the CSIS, said that a massive Iranian response is unlikely. “Iran is less interested in teaching Israel a lesson than (in) showing its allies in the Middle East that it isn’t weak,” he said.
