Extreme weather conditions, from heavy rainfall to severe floods, have struck different regions across the globe in recent weeks.
These unprecedented weather patterns, that hit Kenya, Brazil, Southern China, Australia and Dubai, have caused destruction, death and mass evacuations in many countries due to the unpreparedness of infrastructure for such unexpected climate trends.
Scientists have attributed the heavy downpours to natural weather patterns being driven by a record increase in global temperatures. Furthermore, as temperatures rise, the world becomes wetter, according to the Wall Street Journal.
East Africa
Meteorologists and climate scientists explained that in each of the floods that occurred in April, a specific set of severe weather conditions combined to produce the storms. This caused an unusual amount of rain.
In East Africa, data from the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center revealed that countries experienced 4 to 20 inches of rain during April, exceeding normal amounts by up to six times.
These heavy rainfalls caused havoc in Nairobi, Kenya, which received 12 inches of rain over 7 days, destroying dams and turning streets into deadly rivers.
At least 50 people were killed on Monday due to the collapse of the Old Kijabe Dam north of Nairobi, bringing the total death toll from the flooding to 210, as of Friday, in addition to 90 people missing.
Indian Ocean Dipole
Although these floods occurred during a rainy season extending from March to May, the rainfall has been intensified by a weather pattern called the Indian Ocean Dipole.
This pattern is divided into two phases: the positive phase, when it pushes warm water against the eastern coast of Africa, and the negative phase, when the warm water sloshes back across toward Australia and Indonesia.
Joyce Kimutai, a climate scientist at Imperial College London and member of World Weather Attribution, said that the dipole this year is stronger than normal, which is supercharging heavy rainfall in areas on the western side of the Indian Ocean.
“The warm ocean temperatures plus the evaporative effects of a warmer atmosphere helped set the stage for Kenya’s powerful deluge,” Kimutai added.
The Arabian Peninsula
In mid-April, Dubai witnessed its heaviest rainfall since recording started 75 years ago. The severe flooding brought life to a standstill, causing huge disruptions to flights, knocking out power in some areas, flooding highways and trapping people in their homes.
According to the World Meteorological Organization, the storm started as a slow-moving low-pressure system over Turkey and then picked up moisture as it moved across the Arabian Gulf and Red Sea.
Typically, low-pressure systems would stay over Europe during this time of the year, but this one moved south and caused storms and strong rains over northern Pakistan and Afghanistan, killing 50 people.
El Niño Effect
An analysis by the World Weather Attribution group found that the amount of rain fell during the Dubai storm was possibly influenced by El Niño, a climate pattern that describes the unusual warming of surface waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean and can impact drought and rainfall patterns across the world.
The analysis pointed out that the Arabian Peninsula, known for its dry climate, receives more periods of heavy rainfall during El Niño years than non-El Niño years.
The current El Niño began in 2023 and is gradually waning. However, its effects are still being felt and it played a role in the deadly rains this past week in southern Brazil, according to the country’s National Institute of Meteorology.
Brazil’s southern state of Rio Grande do Sul received 6 inches of rain in 24 hours, leading to mass flooding over the past week which killed at least 55 people, left some 70 missing and displaced more than 80,000 others.
Devastating Impacts
Kimutai, from Imperial College London, noted that this back and forth between drought and flood makes it hard for soil and vegetation to absorb rainwater.
She said: “There are a lot of swings between extremes so the ecosystem really doesn’t get time to recover and get back to its natural, adaptive state. It becomes a weakened system over time.”
Similarly, extreme weather patterns have an immediate impact on Agriculture. British Isles recorded one of its wettest winters this year. Rain flooded fields in the middle of the planting season, threatening harvests.
Moreover, wet weather has prompted farmers to hold off turning animals out to pasture, which means fodder reserves for the coming winter are already being depleted, according to farming unions.
Justin Mankin, associate professor of geography at Dartmouth College, said that rain damage can be worse in urban areas like Dubai, where water can’t soak into the ground, or in rural areas where vegetation has been cut down for food or fuel.
He said: “The built environment shapes how that precipitation gets channeled and presents a hazard to people in the form of flooding. And that’s the case in all these areas whether you’re talking about eastern Australia, Dubai or eastern China.”
